Will Donald Trump say “Nobel”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel” at 7 of 46 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2025 (15%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=46, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nobel
- Probability
- 30% · n=46
- Settled
- 7/46 (15%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…settled I've settled eight wars. Think of that. Did I get the Nobel Prize? No. DID I GET THE NOBEL PRIZE? EXCUSE ME. BYRON, did…
…than any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
So, but I didn't get the Nobel Prize. I didn't get the pullet. I should have gotten a Pulitzer for writing, too. The people that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 48 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Nobel |  Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nobel |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Nobel | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Nobel | Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Nobel | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Nobel | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Nobel | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Nobel | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nobel”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel” at 7 of 46 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2025 (15%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nobel” next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=46). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nobel’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nobel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nobel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP