Will Donald Trump say “Bonus”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bonus” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 27, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Bonus
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I asked generals, they said, "What could we give as a little bonus to our military? They've done so great." And they came in, these…
…1775. The generals, I said, "Generals, I want to give them a bonus. They've been so great. Tell me what we can do." So they…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Bonus |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Bonus”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bonus” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 27, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Bonus” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Bonus’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/bonus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=bonus · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP