Will Donald Trump say “Oil / Gas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Oil / Gas” at 6 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (55%), most recently on Jun 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Oil / Gas
- Probability
- 50% · n=11
- Settled
- 6/11 (55%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we're working with them to produce millions and millions of barrels of oil a week. And in Iran, I terminated the Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA…
…you got to take over a country that's like the best the oil. You know how you find oil in Venezuela? Look at the ground.…
Interest rates are very soon going to be falling just like oil, gas, everything's going to be. We watch what's going to be happening very…
…one state sponsor of terror. As soon as that war is over, oil is going to drop like a rock. And that's the only thing…
…United States Navy has recently escorted more than 1 billion barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, and more oil is flowing than…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Oil / Gas |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Oil / Gas | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| May 4, 2026 | Oil / Gas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Oil / Gas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Gas / Oil |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Oil / Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Oil / Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Oil / Gas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Oil / Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Oil / Gas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Oil / Gas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Oil / Gas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Oil / Gas” at 6 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (55%), most recently on Jun 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Oil / Gas” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Oil / Gas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gas-or-oil (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gas%20%2F%20oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP