Will Donald Trump say “Water”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Water” at 11 of 33 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=33, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Water
- Probability
- 47% · n=33
- Settled
- 11/33 (33%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…now they're at the lowest level coming in through Mexico but by water a lot of them were coming in by water down 97% and…
…Vladimir Putin said, "Yep, you can have him." And we just uh got him about 10 hours ago. He's either landed or flying over water.
…immortal words for the first time, the patriots could see across the waters of New York Harbor to a British invasion fleet more than 100…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 33 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Water |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Water |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Water | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Water”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Water” at 11 of 33 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Water” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=33). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Water’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/water (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=water · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP