JD Vance: Appearance, Feb 26, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his press conference to combat fraud?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say in Wisconsin on February 26?
Markets
39 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Refund | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prescription Drug | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| State of the Union | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hospice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chamber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God / Hell 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE Agent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Six Seven | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class / Working Class | No | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Nuclear | No | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-in-wisconsin-on-february-26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP