JD Vance: Speech, May 28, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Air Force commencement address?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during Air Force Academy Address?
Markets
46 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recruit / Recruitment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President / Trump 10+ times | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-47 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helicopter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space Force | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Long Blue Line | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 21%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 17%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 64%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 62%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 57%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 44%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Aeronautical / Aeronautics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| BCT / Basic Combat Training | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commitment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dance / Dancing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Godspeed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Navy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NORTHCOM | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Semper | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Telemetry | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Department of War | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 30%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 18%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-during-air-force-academy-address · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP