JD Vance: Remarks, Jan 23, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Ohio?
Polymarket What will J.D. Vance say at the March for Life on Friday?
Markets
37 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 70%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| God 3+ times | Yes | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Housing / Home | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Christian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dobbs | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Far-Left | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ultrasound / Cell | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 28%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion Clinic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America / American 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Heinous | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innocent Life | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pro-Family / Pro-Life 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Young Mom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Working class | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JAN23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP