JD Vance: Speech, Oct 19, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his speech at Camp Pendleton?
Markets
23 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Wage | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Aircraft | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Amphibious | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Combat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iraq | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medal of Honor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Proud / Pride | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recruit / Recruitment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vietnam | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Usha | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bomber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cold War | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Department of War | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25OCT19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP