JD Vance: Speech, Dec 21, 2025
Polymarket What will JD Vance say at AmericaFest on December 21?
Markets
18 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| God 3+ times | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border / Immigration 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Political Violence | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| House / Housing | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie / Kirk 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime Change | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-at-americafest-on-december-21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP