JD Vance: Remarks, Dec 17, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Pennsylvania?
Markets
20 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug / Cartel | Yes | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 34%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25DEC17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP