Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 11, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Congressional Ball on December 11?
Markets
20 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melania | Yes | 64%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Job 5+ times | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 50%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 49%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hanukkah | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 401k | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christmas | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Our First Lady / Our Great First Lady | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Usha | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mike / Johnson | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election / November 5th | No | 53%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / Anniversary | No | 52%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 52%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Too big to rig | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Barron | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 35%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-congressional-ball-on-december-11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP