Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 24, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Kennedy Center Honors?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Christmas Eve service member calls?
Markets
38 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space Force | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion | No | 72%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 66%n=137 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 66%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 60%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| F-35 | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 57%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 54%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 54%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 53%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 52%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | No | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 49%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Anniversary / Olympics | No | 48%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hannukah | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job 15+ times | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 43%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Grinch | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thailand | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 38%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Golden | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 36%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 35%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 34%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 29%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| N Word | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bone | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 17%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=214 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP