Donald Trump: Remarks, May 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Maternal Healthcare Event?
Markets
24 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 54%n=137 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=246 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 53%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 53%n=160 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 50%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | Yes | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=222 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 43%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 42%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 29%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 60%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 55%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 51%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 48%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 39%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 38%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=361 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP