Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 12, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Bill Signing on December 12?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| College / Football | Yes | 58%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 54%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Walz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thank you / Please 10+ times | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrible / Horrible 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold / Golden | Yes | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Army / Navy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | Yes | 35%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 62%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 59%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 56%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock market / 401k | No | 46%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Love / Loved 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 35%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-bill-signing-on-december-12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP