Donald Trump: Rally, Dec 2, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Tennessee Telerally?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?
Markets
39 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | Yes | 68%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 62%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 62%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 56%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear / Skedaddle | Yes | 55%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 55%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 46%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 42%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| IQ | Yes | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Boat / Terrorist | Yes | 40%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Job 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sarah / Beckstrom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank You / Please 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 39%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Retarded / Walz | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax / Deductible 5+ times | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 4+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peanut / Infinitesimal | Yes | 34%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 66%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 65%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 65%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 57%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Defund | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ass / Shit | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 41%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 38%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Tylenol | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine / Venezuela 15+ times | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 33%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / DOGE | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Job 15+ times | open | – | 55¢ Polymarket |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP