Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 18, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Black History Month reception?
Markets
23 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Market | Yes | 60%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Hat / MAGA | Yes | 56%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 54%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 53%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Crime | Yes | 47%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 43%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| Smart / High IQ | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Black American 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jesse / Jackson | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Patriot / Hero | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 58%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Black Vote | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| BLM / Black Lives Matter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Love Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Television / TV | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Slave / Slavery | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Congress / Shutdown | No | 32%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| VoterID / Voter ID | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=274 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-black-history-month-reception · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP