Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Bilateral Meetings?
Markets
26 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 65%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 62%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=205 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 55%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 55%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 53%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 52%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | 47%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Keir / Starmer | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | Yes | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | 68%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 61%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 56%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 44%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shamrock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 27%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=310 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP