Donald Trump: Tele-rally with Darline Graham, Oct 15, 2026
At the rally on Oct 15, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 24 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
24 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | 73%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=373 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 64%n=253 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 62%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=231 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 60%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Second Amendment | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Military / Veteran | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 45%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 44%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 75%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 58%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 48%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 47%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Cut | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 47%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 46%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 44%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 40%n=197 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 40%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 37%n=356 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 35%n=259 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=280 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=530 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 26, 2026 from the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-15:rally-tele-darline-graham · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-15:rally-tele-darline-graham · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP