Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 5, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?
Markets
16 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | No | 66%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 64%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 63%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 55%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Equipment / Military | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 54%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia / Qatar | No | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports / Transgender | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anniversary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egg / Gasoline | No | 39%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Jail | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 34%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 23%n=29 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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