Will Donald Trump say “Crime / Criminal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crime / Criminal” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 6/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crime / Criminal
- Probability
- 50% · n=6
- Settled
- 6/6 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to rob, rape, and kill. Why can't I have a candidate like…
…benefits to illegal aliens and even wrote a memo giving illegal alien criminals instructions on how to evade capture. He's explaining to them how to…
…want to thank everybody for being here. The effort to stop cyber crime and cyber fraud has been ongoing for many years, but I think…
…control. The hardest thing we have to do is nab these career criminals, these horrendous people, and get them the hell out of here. Get…
…Treasury involved to follow where the money's hiding. It's not just the criminal in front of you that Nick saw. It's also the people behind…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Crime / Criminal |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crime / Criminal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crime / Criminal” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crime / Criminal” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crime / Criminal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crime-or-criminal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crime%20%2F%20criminal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP