Will Donald Trump say “Eight Wars / Eighth War”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Eight Wars / Eighth War” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (54%), most recently on May 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Eight Wars / Eighth War
- Probability
- 39% · n=13
- Settled
- 7/13 (54%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…tariffs, the use of tariffs. Number one, tariffs have helped us end eight wars. Five of the eight, I would say, was because of trade…
…such respect. Not that I want. It's just ridiculous. I settled like eight wars. How the hell do you not get the Nobel Prize? The…
…they can make a deal. I thought -- you know, I settled eight wars. I thought that would be the easiest one. The hatred between…
Since I took office, it has been my great honor to settle eight wars and in so doing, become friendly with the leaders of many…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | Eight Wars / Eighth War |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 17, 2026 | Eight War / Eighth War | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 15, 2026 | Eight Wars / Eighth War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Eight Wars / Eighth War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Eight Wars / Eighth War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Eight Wars / Eighth War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Eight war / Eighth war | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Eight Wars / Eighth War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Eighth War / Eight War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Eighth war / Eight wars | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Eighth war / Eight wars | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Eighth war / Eight wars | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Eight War / Eighth War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Eight Wars / Eighth War”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Eight Wars / Eighth War” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (54%), most recently on May 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Eight Wars / Eighth War” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Eight Wars / Eighth War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/eight-war-or-eighth-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=eight%20war%20%2F%20eighth%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP