Will Donald Trump say “Common Sense”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Common Sense” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 12, 2025 (25%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Common Sense
- Probability
- 35% · n=8
- Settled
- 2/8 (25%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Common Sense |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Common Sense | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Common Sense |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Common sense | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Common Sense | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Common Sense | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Common Sense | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Common Sense | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Common Sense”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Common Sense” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 12, 2025 (25%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Common Sense” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Common Sense’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/common-sense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=common%20sense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP