Will Donald Trump say “Midterm”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Midterm” at 11 of 25 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 2, 2025 (44%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=25, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Midterm
- Probability
- 40% · n=25
- Settled
- 11/25 (44%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted.
…We are very early right now. We have to get through the midterms. We'll see how it goes. I'm going to a rally in North…
…-- I don't know. The president always loses, for whatever reason, the midterms, whoever it is, Republican, Democrat, great president, lousy president for some reason.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 27 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Midterm |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Midterm |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 24, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Midterm | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Midterm | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Midterm | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Midterm”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Midterm” at 11 of 25 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 2, 2025 (44%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Midterm” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=25). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Midterm’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/midterm (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=midterm · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP