Will Donald Trump say “Pope”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pope” at 7 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (29%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pope
- Probability
- 33% · n=24
- Settled
- 7/24 (29%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 24 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Pope |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Pope |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 8, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 3, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Pope | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Pope | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 13, 2025 | Pope | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 9, 2025 | Pope | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Pope | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Pope | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pope”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pope” at 7 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (29%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pope” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pope’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pope (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pope · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP