Will Donald Trump say “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cheat / Cheated / Cheater
- Probability
- 61% · n=8
- Settled
- 4/8 (50%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 3 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of it. Why do they want no voter ID? They want to cheat. Why do they want a man not to come up to them…
…a lot of crazy things. That's why they're great at cheating. They cheat like hell. And if they didn't cheat, they could never win because…
…great seniors. They voted against voter ID. Why? Because they want to cheat. They voted against proof of citizenship. Oh, sir, may I please see…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Cheat / Cheated / Cheater |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Cheat / Cheated / Cheater | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cheat / Cheated / Cheater | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 18, 2026 | Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cheat / Cheated / Cheater” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cheat / Cheated / Cheater’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cheat-or-cheated-or-cheater (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cheat%20%2F%20cheated%20%2F%20cheater · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP