Will Donald Trump say “ID / Identification”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ID / Identification” at 10 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2026 (71%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
ID / Identification
- Probability
- 45% · n=14
- Settled
- 10/14 (71%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…tax on social security for our great seniors. They voted against voter ID. They voted against proof of citizenship. They voted against securing our borders.…
…of our country with the Democrats. They don't have to have voter ID, but we want voter ID, don't we? Huh? We're going to have…
…tax on social security for our great seniors. They voted against voter ID. Why? Because they want to cheat. They voted against proof of citizenship.…
It reminds me of California that, if you ask a person for identification during a voting process, they put you in jail. In other words,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | ID / Identification |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 21, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 17, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 31, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 26, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 25, 2026 | ID / Identification |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 25, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 24, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 23, 2026 | ID / Identification | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 23, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 11, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 9, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 28, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 22, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “ID / Identification”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ID / Identification” at 10 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2026 (71%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “ID / Identification” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘ID / Identification’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/id-or-identification (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=id%20%2F%20identification · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP