Will Donald Trump say “Green New Scam”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Green New Scam” at 16 of 27 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (59%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=27, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Green New Scam
- Probability
- 40% · n=27
- Settled
- 16/27 (59%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I also declared a national emergency on energy and terminated the Green New Scam. One of the greatest hoaxes in the history of our country.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 29 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Green New Scam |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Green New Scam |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| May 21, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Green New Scam | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Green new scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Green new scam | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Green New Scam | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Green New Scam”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Green New Scam” at 16 of 27 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (59%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Green New Scam” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=27). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Green New Scam’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/green-new-scam (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=green%20new%20scam · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP