Will Donald Trump say “ICE”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ICE” at 24 of 51 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (47%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 76% (n=51, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

76%from settlement history only · n=51Next: Rally, Oct 27, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
87¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

ICE

Probability
76% · n=51
Settled
24/51 (47%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 59:13In transcript

He's a great guy. Actually, I'll tell you. Border Patrol and ICE and all law enforcement. Boy, I met a lot of your law enforcement…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 55 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 17, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026ICEPolymarketYes–
Oct 13, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 12, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 9, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 3, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026ICEPolymarketNo–
Oct 2, 2026ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026ICEPolymarketYes–
Oct 1, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026ICEPolymarketNo–
Sep 30, 2026ICEKalshiNo–
Sep 16, 2026ICEKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 10, 2026ICEKalshiNo0
Aug 30, 2026ICEKalshiNo–
Aug 21, 2026ICEKalshiYes3
Aug 14, 2026ICEKalshiNo0
Aug 5, 2026ICEKalshiYes6
Aug 4, 2026ICEKalshiNo–
Jul 23, 2026ICEKalshiNo0
Jul 16, 2026ICEKalshiNo0
May 27, 2026ICEPolymarketYes–
May 17, 2026ICEPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 26, 2026ICEPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Mar 26, 2026ICEKalshiNo–
Mar 23, 2026ICEKalshiYes–
Jan 13, 2026ICEPolymarketYes–
Dec 24, 2025ICEPolymarketNo–
Dec 12, 2025ICEPolymarketYes–
Nov 22, 2025ICEKalshiYes–
Nov 21, 2025ICEPolymarketYes–
Nov 12, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Nov 11, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Nov 6, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Nov 3, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 23, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 22, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 21, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 16, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Sep 30, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2025ICEPolymarketYes–
Jul 12, 2025ICEPolymarketYes–
Jul 4, 2025ICEPolymarketNo–
Feb 20, 2025ICEKalshiNo–
Oct 31, 2024ICEPolymarketYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “ICE”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “ICE” at 24 of 51 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (47%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “ICE” next time?
76%, from settlement history (n=51). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘ICE’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ice (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP