Will Donald Trump say “Crazy”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crazy” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (83%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crazy
- Probability
- 59% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…say about him is that he lies. But actually, I believe he's crazy. So now he's pledging to turn Florida into a sanctuary state so…
…She really said she was a horrible liar. I mean, it was crazy. And he made a commercial. He put it up, you know, like…
…watching it cuz I try like what makes these people tick? It's crazy. But Lindsay respected Darlene more than any person on the planet and…
…it. I don't know where they're living. I don't know. It's a crazy situation going on. So, we have now a border that's as strong…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Crazy |  Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Crazy | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Crazy | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Crazy | Polymarket | Yes | 12 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Crazy | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Crazy | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crazy”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crazy” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (83%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crazy” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crazy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crazy (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crazy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP