White House press briefing
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 2,340 word markets on the White House press briefing series since 2024, on 653 different words; most reliably said: “President” 50+ times (10 of 11). Next: Press briefing, by Feb 1, 2027 (25 words listed).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Next: Press briefing ·
25 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: role: press secretary
Kalshi| Word | Mar 10briefing | Mar 30briefing | Mar 31briefing | Apr 8briefing | Apr 15briefing | Apr 27briefing | Jul 17briefing | Jul 23briefing | Sep 15briefing | Oct 13latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | 6 times: Nuclear, Mar 10 briefing, counts as said | 4 times: Nuclear, Mar 30 briefing, counts as said | 2 times: Nuclear, Mar 31 briefing, counts as said | 4 times: Nuclear, Apr 8 briefing, counts as said | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 13 briefing | 4/4100% | 11/1479% | 57%n=14 from settlement history | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Economy / Economic | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Sep 15 briefing | 2 times: Economy / Economic, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 48¢ Kalshi |
| Election / Midterm | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Sep 15 briefing | 3 times: Election / Midterm, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 34¢ Kalshi |
| Leavitt | Not listed: Leavitt, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Leavitt, Sep 15 briefing | 1 time: Leavitt, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Inflation, Sep 15 briefing | 1 time: Inflation, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 1/1100% | 11/1958% | 50%n=19 from settlement history | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Border | 0 times: Border, Mar 10 briefing | 1 time: Border, Mar 30 briefing, counts as said | 3 times: Border, Mar 31 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Border, Apr 8 briefing | 0 times: Border, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Border, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Border, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Border, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Border, Sep 15 briefing | 2 times: Border, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 3/743% | 29/4171% | 48%n=41 from settlement history | 40¢ Kalshi |
| America First | Settled no: America First, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: America First, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: America First, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: America First, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: America First, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: America First, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: America First, Jul 17 briefing | 1 time: America First, Jul 23 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: America First, Sep 15 briefing | 1 time: America First, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 2/540% | 7/1741% | 48%n=17 from settlement history | 16¢ Kalshi |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 27 briefing | 9 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 17 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 15 briefing | 5 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 2/450% | 3/560% | 47%n=5 from settlement history | 46¢ Kalshi |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: China / Chinese, Jul 17 briefing | 1 time: China / Chinese, Jul 23 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: China / Chinese, Sep 15 briefing | 1 time: China / Chinese, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 2/450% | 2/450% | 46%n=4 from settlement history | 32¢ Kalshi |
| Biden | 1 time: Biden, Mar 10 briefing, counts as said | 1 time: Biden, Mar 30 briefing, counts as said | 4 times: Biden, Mar 31 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Biden, Apr 8 briefing | 1 time: Biden, Apr 15 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Biden, Apr 27 briefing | 3 times: Biden, Jul 17 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Biden, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Biden, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Biden, Oct 13 briefing | 5/956% | 30/3879% | 43%n=38 from settlement history | 42¢ Kalshi |
| Illegal Alien | 3 times: Illegal Alien, Mar 10 briefing, counts as said | 5 times: Illegal Alien, Mar 30 briefing, counts as said | 8 times: Illegal Alien, Mar 31 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Illegal Alien, Apr 8 briefing | 0 times: Illegal Alien, Apr 15 briefing | 0 times: Illegal Alien, Apr 27 briefing | 4 times: Illegal Alien, Jul 17 briefing, counts as said | 1 time: Illegal Alien, Jul 23 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: Illegal Alien, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Illegal Alien, Oct 13 briefing | 5/1050% | 19/2966% | 42%n=29 from settlement history | 31¢ Kalshi |
| Fentanyl | Not listed: Fentanyl, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 13 briefing | – | 2/367% | 41%n=3 from settlement history | 16¢ Kalshi |
| Venezuela | Settled no: Venezuela, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Oct 13 briefing | 0/10% | 2/633% | 41%n=6 from settlement history | 19¢ Kalshi |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 10 briefing | 0 times: Fraud, Mar 30 briefing | 1 time: Fraud, Mar 31 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Fraud, Apr 8 briefing | 1 time: Fraud, Apr 15 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Fraud, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: Fraud, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Fraud, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Fraud, Sep 15 briefing | 3 times: Fraud, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 3/933% | 7/1450% | 40%n=14 from settlement history | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Trumpnew 3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 13 briefing | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 75¢ Kalshi |
| Tariff | 0 times: Tariff, Mar 10 briefing | 0 times: Tariff, Mar 30 briefing | 0 times: Tariff, Mar 31 briefing | 0 times: Tariff, Apr 8 briefing | 1 time: Tariff, Apr 15 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: Tariff, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Tariff, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Tariff, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Tariff, Sep 15 briefing | 1 time: Tariff, Oct 13 briefing, counts as said | 2/825% | 22/4945% | 36%n=49 from settlement history | 16¢ Kalshi |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Democrat, Oct 13 briefing | 0/10% | 2/367% | 35%n=3 from settlement history | 47¢ Kalshi |
| ICE | Not listed: ICE, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: ICE, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: ICE, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: ICE, Apr 8 briefing | 0 times: ICE, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: ICE, Apr 27 briefing | 3 times: ICE, Jul 17 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: ICE, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: ICE, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: ICE, Oct 13 briefing | 1/520% | 6/1540% | 32%n=15 from settlement history | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 13 briefing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 15 briefing | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jul 17 briefing | 2 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jul 23 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 13 briefing | 1/520% | 1/520% | 29%n=5 from settlement history | 16¢ Kalshi |
| Russia / Ukraine | Settled yes: Russia / Ukraine, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Apr 27 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Russia / Ukraine, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Russia / Ukraine, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 13 briefing | 1/333% | 4/944% | 29%n=9 from settlement history | 41¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 8 briefing | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 15 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 17 briefing | 2 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 23 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 13 briefing | 1/617% | 9/3228% | 28%n=32 from settlement history | 27¢ Kalshi |
| California | Not listed: California, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: California, Mar 30 briefing | Not listed: California, Mar 31 briefing | Not listed: California, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: California, Apr 15 briefing | 0 times: California, Apr 27 briefing | 4 times: California, Jul 17 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: California, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: California, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: California, Oct 13 briefing | 1/520% | 1/520% | 28%n=5 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
| Fake News | Settled no: Fake News, Mar 10 briefing | Not listed: Fake News, Mar 30 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Mar 31 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Apr 8 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Apr 15 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Fake News, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Fake News, Oct 13 briefing | 0/90% | 1/128% | 18%n=12 from settlement history | 25¢ Kalshi |
| Crypto / Bitcoinnever said | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Mar 10 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Mar 30 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Mar 31 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Apr 8 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Apr 15 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Apr 27 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 13 briefing | 0/100% | 0/380% | 15%n=38 from settlement history | 6¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 689, most settled first · page 1 of 8| Word | May 19briefing | May 28briefing | Jun 2briefing | Jul 16briefing | Jul 17briefing | Jul 23briefing | Aug 31briefing | Sep 15briefing | Oct 13briefing | Oct 14latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Not listed: China, May 19 briefing | 1 time: China, May 28 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: China, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: China, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: China, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: China, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: China, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: China, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: China, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: China, Oct 14 briefing | 1/250% | 24/5246% | 37%n=52 from settlement history |
| Israel | Not listed: Israel, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Israel, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Israel, Oct 14 briefing | – | 22/3661% | 49%n=36 from settlement history |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 14 briefing | – | 10/3033% | 26%n=30 from settlement history |
| Stock Market | Not listed: Stock Market, May 19 briefing | 1 time: Stock Market, May 28 briefing, counts as said | Not listed: Stock Market, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Stock Market, Jul 16 briefing | 0 times: Stock Market, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Stock Market, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Stock Market, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: Stock Market, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 14 briefing | 1/425% | 2/248% | 21%n=24 from settlement history |
| Stupid Questionnever said | Not listed: Stupid Question, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Stupid Question, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Stupid Question, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Stupid Question, Jul 16 briefing | 0 times: Stupid Question, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Stupid Question, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Stupid Question, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: Stupid Question, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Stupid Question, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Stupid Question, Oct 14 briefing | 0/30% | 0/240% | 16%n=24 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Settled yes: Ceasefire, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jun 2 briefing | 0 times: Ceasefire, Jul 16 briefing | 0 times: Ceasefire, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Ceasefire, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Ceasefire, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: Ceasefire, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 14 briefing | 1/617% | 10/2343% | 29%n=23 from settlement history |
| Supreme Court | Not listed: Supreme Court, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Supreme Court, May 28 briefing | Settled no: Supreme Court, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Supreme Court, Jul 16 briefing | 0 times: Supreme Court, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Supreme Court, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Supreme Court, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: Supreme Court, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 14 briefing | 0/40% | 4/2218% | 18%n=22 from settlement history |
| Radical Left | Not listed: Radical Left, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Radical Left, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Radical Left, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Radical Left, Jul 16 briefing | 0 times: Radical Left, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Radical Left, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Radical Left, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: Radical Left, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Radical Left, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 14 briefing | 0/40% | 1/225% | 16%n=22 from settlement history |
| Russia | Not listed: Russia, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Russia, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Russia, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Oct 14 briefing | 0/10% | 12/2060% | 42%n=20 from settlement history |
| Elon/Musk | Not listed: Elon/Musk, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Elon/Musk, Oct 14 briefing | – | 10/2050% | 37%n=20 from settlement history |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, Jul 16 briefing | 0 times: Healthcare, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Healthcare, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 14 briefing | 0/20% | 4/2020% | 23%n=20 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 14 briefing | – | 9/1753% | 42%n=17 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 14 briefing | – | 2/1712% | 25%n=17 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Iran, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Iran, Oct 14 briefing | – | 11/1669% | 60%n=16 from settlement history |
| Gaza | Not listed: Gaza, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Oct 14 briefing | – | 7/1644% | 41%n=16 from settlement history |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 14 briefing | – | 9/1560% | 45%n=15 from settlement history |
| NATO | Not listed: NATO, May 19 briefing | Not listed: NATO, May 28 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Jul 16 briefing | 2 times: NATO, Jul 17 briefing, counts as said | 0 times: NATO, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: NATO, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Oct 14 briefing | 1/333% | 4/1527% | 32%n=15 from settlement history |
| Putin | Not listed: Putin, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Putin, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Oct 14 briefing | – | 4/1527% | 32%n=15 from settlement history |
| Egg | Not listed: Egg, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Egg, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Egg, Oct 14 briefing | – | 3/1520% | 28%n=15 from settlement history |
| Greenland | Not listed: Greenland, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Greenland, Oct 14 briefing | – | 2/1513% | 33%n=15 from settlement history |
| Mexico | Settled no: Mexico, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Mexico, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Mexico, Jun 2 briefing | 0 times: Mexico, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Mexico, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Mexico, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Mexico, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Mexico, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Mexico, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Mexico, Oct 14 briefing | 0/40% | 2/1513% | 23%n=15 from settlement history |
| President60+ times | Not listed: President 60+ times, May 19 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, May 28 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: President 60+ times, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: President 60+ times, Oct 14 briefing | 0/10% | 9/1464% | 38%n=14 from settlement history |
| FBI | Not listed: FBI, May 19 briefing | Not listed: FBI, May 28 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: FBI, Oct 14 briefing | – | 6/1443% | 34%n=14 from settlement history |
| Go ahead5+ times | Settled yes: Go ahead 5+ times, May 19 briefing | 0 times: Go ahead 5+ times, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Go ahead 5+ times, Jun 2 briefing | 11 times: Go ahead 5+ times, Jul 16 briefing, counts as said | Not listed: Go ahead 5+ times, Jul 17 briefing | 1 time: Go ahead 5+ times, Jul 23 briefing, below the threshold | Settled no: Go ahead 5+ times, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Go ahead 5+ times, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Go ahead 5+ times, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Go ahead 5+ times, Oct 14 briefing | 2/540% | 6/1346% | 37%n=13 from settlement history |
| DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, May 19 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, May 28 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency, Oct 14 briefing | – | 4/1233% | 35%n=12 from settlement history |
| President100+ times | Not listed: President 100+ times, May 19 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, May 28 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: President 100+ times, Oct 14 briefing | – | 1/128% | 32%n=12 from settlement history |
| TikTok | Not listed: TikTok, May 19 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, May 28 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: TikTok, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: TikTok, Oct 14 briefing | 0/10% | 1/128% | 27%n=12 from settlement history |
| President50+ times | Not listed: President 50+ times, May 19 briefing | Not listed: President 50+ times, May 28 briefing | Not listed: President 50+ times, Jun 2 briefing | 86 times: President 50+ times, Jul 16 briefing, counts as said | Not listed: President 50+ times, Jul 17 briefing | 51 times: President 50+ times, Jul 23 briefing, counts as said | Settled no: President 50+ times, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: President 50+ times, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: President 50+ times, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: President 50+ times, Oct 14 briefing | 2/367% | 10/1191% | 53%n=11 from settlement history |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 14 briefing | – | 8/1173% | 38%n=11 from settlement history |
| Immigration | Not listed: Immigration, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 14 briefing | – | 4/1136% | 36%n=11 from settlement history |
| Ballroom | Not listed: Ballroom, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Sep 15 briefing | 0 times: Ballroom, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 14 briefing | 0/10% | 3/1127% | 31%n=11 from settlement history |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, May 19 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, May 28 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Oct 14 briefing | – | 6/1060% | 44%n=10 from settlement history |
| National Guard | Not listed: National Guard, May 19 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, May 28 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: National Guard, Oct 14 briefing | – | 1/1010% | 28%n=10 from settlement history |
| Energy | Not listed: Energy, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Energy, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Energy, Oct 14 briefing | – | 7/978% | 48%n=9 from settlement history |
| Hormuz | Not listed: Hormuz, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 13 briefing | Settled no: Hormuz, Oct 14 briefing | 0/10% | 7/978% | 46%n=9 from settlement history |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Narcoterrorist, Oct 14 briefing | – | 4/944% | 46%n=9 from settlement history |
| Canada | Not listed: Canada, May 19 briefing | Not listed: Canada, May 28 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Canada, Oct 14 briefing | – | 3/933% | 40%n=9 from settlement history |
| Commander in Chief | Settled no: Commander in Chief, May 19 briefing | 0 times: Commander in Chief, May 28 briefing | Settled no: Commander in Chief, Jun 2 briefing | 0 times: Commander in Chief, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: Commander in Chief, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Commander in Chief, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Commander in Chief, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: Commander in Chief, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Commander in Chief, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: Commander in Chief, Oct 14 briefing | 0/60% | 2/922% | 24%n=9 from settlement history |
| Iran5+ times | Settled yes: Iran 5+ times, May 19 briefing | 2 times: Iran 5+ times, May 28 briefing, below the threshold | Not listed: Iran 5+ times, Jun 2 briefing | 13 times: Iran 5+ times, Jul 16 briefing, counts as said | Not listed: Iran 5+ times, Jul 17 briefing | 0 times: Iran 5+ times, Jul 23 briefing | Settled no: Iran 5+ times, Aug 31 briefing | Settled no: Iran 5+ times, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: Iran 5+ times, Oct 13 briefing | Settled no: Iran 5+ times, Oct 14 briefing | 2/729% | 2/922% | 28%n=9 from settlement history |
| President80+ times | Not listed: President 80+ times, May 19 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, May 28 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Jun 2 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Jul 16 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Jul 17 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Jul 23 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Aug 31 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Sep 15 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Oct 13 briefing | Not listed: President 80+ times, Oct 14 briefing | – | 2/922% | 36%n=9 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 1,870 of 1,917 settled words resolved (97.5%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? | no transcript | 14 | 3 yes · 11 no | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? | Speaker-labelled captions | 27 | 11 yes · 16 no | 27/27 (100%) |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? | no transcript | 30 | 0 yes · 30 no | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? | no transcript | 22 | 0 yes · 22 no | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? | Speaker-labelled captions | 55 | 17 yes · 38 no | 51/55 (93%) |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? | Speaker-labelled captions | 29 | 12 yes · 17 no | 29/29 (100%) |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? | Speaker-labelled captions | 22 | 14 yes · 8 no | 21/22 (95%) |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? | no transcript | 27 | 11 yes · 16 no | – |
| May 28, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? | Speaker-labelled captions | 22 | 11 yes · 11 no | 22/22 (100%) |
| May 19, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? | no transcript | 25 | 15 yes · 10 no | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Marco Rubio say during the next White House press briefing? | Speaker-labelled captions | 28 | 17 yes · 11 no | 28/28 (100%) |
| May 1, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? | no transcript | 23 | 6 yes · 17 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “White House press briefing: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/white-house-press-briefing · words: /api/v1/history?entity=white-house-press-briefing · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP