Will “Fraud” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was said at the White House press briefing on 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 18¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Fraud
- Probability
- 40% · n=14
- Settled
- 7/14 (50%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A).
…Trump administration bringing in trillions of dollars to invest throughout the country, but we are also protecting your tax dollars by addressing fraud head on.
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Fraud |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fraud |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Fraud | Kalshi | No | 4 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often is “Fraud” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was said at the White House press briefing on 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
- What is the probability “Fraud” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP