Will “Tariff” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said at the White House press briefing on 22 of 49 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (45%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=49, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.

36%from settlement history only · n=49Next: Press briefing, Feb 1, 2027 · counts: role: press secretary
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
role: press secretary
Market
15¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Tariff

Probability
36% · n=49
Settled
22/49 (45%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: role: press secretary

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Katie Zachariaspeakerqa · 7:43In transcript

…over security interests in Greenland. President Trump has used the power of tariffs to stop China from producing fentanyl precursor chemicals. Those -- the fentanyl…

What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · settled no

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not said

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 53 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 13, 2026TariffKalshiYes1
Sep 15, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Jun 2, 2026TariffPolymarketNo–
May 28, 2026TariffPolymarketNo0
Apr 27, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Apr 15, 2026TariffKalshiYes1
Apr 8, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Mar 31, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Mar 30, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Mar 10, 2026TariffPolymarketNo–
Mar 10, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Mar 4, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Feb 26, 2026TariffPolymarketNo–
Feb 18, 2026TariffKalshiYes1
Feb 10, 2026TariffPolymarketNo–
Feb 10, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Feb 5, 2026TariffPolymarketNo0
Feb 5, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jan 26, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jan 20, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jan 15, 2026TariffKalshiYes2
Jan 7, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Dec 11, 2025TariffKalshiYes1
Dec 1, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Nov 20, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Nov 12, 2025TariffKalshiYes2
Nov 4, 2025TariffKalshiYes6
Oct 23, 2025TariffPolymarketNo0
Oct 23, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Oct 6, 2025TariffKalshiYes1
Oct 4, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Oct 1, 2025TariffKalshiYes1
Sep 22, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 20, 2025TariffKalshiYes1
Aug 13, 2025TariffKalshiYes1
Jul 31, 2025TariffKalshiYes10
Jul 23, 2025TariffKalshiYes9
Jul 17, 2025TariffKalshiYes11
Jun 30, 2025TariffKalshiYes3
Jun 6, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
May 29, 2025TariffKalshiYes14
May 20, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
May 1, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2025TariffKalshiYes3
Apr 28, 2025TariffKalshiNo3 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Apr 22, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Apr 15, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Apr 10, 2025TariffKalshiYes8
Apr 9, 2025TariffKalshiYes16
Mar 31, 2025TariffKalshiYes–
Mar 20, 2025TariffKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2025TariffKalshiYes2
Mar 11, 2025TariffKalshiYes18

Questions

How often is “Tariff” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said at the White House press briefing on 22 of 49 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (45%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability “Tariff” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
36%, from settlement history (n=49). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP