Will “Inflation” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said at the White House press briefing on 11 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 19, 2025 (58%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 48¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Inflation
- Probability
- 50% · n=19
- Settled
- 11/19 (58%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…1.2 percent since President Trump took office, with average annual earnings outpacing inflation by $800. Under Biden, real wages fell nearly 4 percent, with the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 20 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Inflation |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Inflation |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Inflation | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| May 20, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Inflation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Inflation” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said at the White House press briefing on 11 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 19, 2025 (58%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
- What is the probability “Inflation” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Inflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/inflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=inflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP