Will “FBI” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “FBI” was said at the White House press briefing on 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 1, 2025 (43%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
FBI
- Probability
- 34% · n=14
- Settled
- 6/14 (43%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…going to talk about is terrorism. Since President Trump returned to office, FBI data shows 4,260 arrests related to FTOs, including 1,039 individuals prevented from…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…for us to quickly call the Office of Inspector General or the FBI, the Department of Justice, and to have Todd Blanche call back and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you about Antifa. In October, the Treasury Department started working with the FBI to investigate who's funding Antifa. Can you give us an update on…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | FBI |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | FBI |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | FBI | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | 15 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | FBI | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | FBI | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “FBI” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “FBI” was said at the White House press briefing on 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 1, 2025 (43%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026.
- What is the probability “FBI” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘FBI’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/fbi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=fbi · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP