Will “Mexico” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Mexico” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 25, 2025 (13%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Mexico
- Probability
- 23% · n=15
- Settled
- 2/15 (13%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…providers, that money is paid by folks who are taxpayers in New Mexico, which is a blue state, and Mississippi, a red state, so this…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Mexico |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 19, 2026 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Mexico |  Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 29, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 9, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 1, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Mexico | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Mexico | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Mexico” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Mexico” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 25, 2025 (13%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025.
- What is the probability “Mexico” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Mexico’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/mexico (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=mexico · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP