Will “America First” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “America First” was said at the White House press briefing on 7 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (41%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 12¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
America First
- Probability
- 48% · n=17
- Settled
- 7/17 (41%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: role: press secretary
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…showing up in droves to attend these rallies because of President Trump's America First agenda of lower taxes, higher wages, and one of my favorites,…
Counts: role: press secretary
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…that has been discussed thus far and will continue to be discussed absolutely puts America first, and that's obviously very important to this President. Ed.
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | America First |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | America First |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | America First | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | America First | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | America First | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | America First | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 9, 2025 | America First | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 1, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | America First | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 9, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Mar 11, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Feb 25, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 19, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | America First | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | America First | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “America First” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “America First” was said at the White House press briefing on 7 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (41%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
- What is the probability “America First” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘America First’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/america-first (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=america%20first · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP