Will “Greenland” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Greenland” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (13%), most recently on Jan 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Greenland
- Probability
- 33% · n=15
- Settled
- 2/15 (13%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…unprecedented agreement giving the United States lasting control over security interests in Greenland. President Trump has used the power of tariffs to stop China from…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Greenland |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Greenland | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Greenland | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Greenland |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Greenland | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Greenland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Greenland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Greenland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Greenland | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Greenland” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Greenland” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (13%), most recently on Jan 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Greenland” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Greenland’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/greenland (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=greenland · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP