Will “Elon/Musk” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Elon/Musk” was said at the White House press briefing on 10 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jun 6, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=20, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.

37%from settlement history only · n=20counts: role: press secretary
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
role: press secretary

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Elon/Musk

Probability
37% · n=20
Settled
10/20 (50%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 23 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Dec 22, 2025Elon/MuskKalshiNo–
Jun 6, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes1
May 9, 2025Elon / MuskPolymarketNo0
Apr 22, 2025Elon / MuskPolymarketNo0
Apr 22, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiNo0
Apr 15, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiNo0
Apr 10, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiNo0
Apr 9, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiNo0
Mar 31, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes4
Mar 20, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes6
Mar 18, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes1
Mar 17, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes1
Mar 11, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes4
Feb 25, 2025Elon/MuskPolymarketYes15
Feb 25, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes15
Feb 21, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiNo–
Feb 20, 2025Elon/MuskPolymarketNo0
Feb 19, 2025Elon / MuskKalshiYes–
Feb 12, 2025Elon/MuskPolymarketYes–
Feb 5, 2025Elon/MuskPolymarketYes–
Jan 31, 2025Elon/MuskPolymarketNo–
Jan 31, 2025Elon/MuskKalshiNo0

Questions

How often is “Elon/Musk” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Elon/Musk” was said at the White House press briefing on 10 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jun 6, 2025.
What is the probability “Elon/Musk” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
37%, from settlement history (n=20). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Elon/Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/elon-or-musk (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=elon%20%2F%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP