Will “Israel” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel” was said at the White House press briefing on 22 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (61%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=36, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.

49%from settlement history only · n=36counts: role: press secretary
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
role: press secretary

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

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White House press briefing

Israel

Probability
49% · n=36
Settled
22/36 (61%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

The PressreporterVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 20:55In transcript

…the president's impeachment, and many accuse him of trying to jeopardize US Israel relations. What do you say to those who are uneasy with your…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Karoline LeavittspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Jul. 23, 2026 · Jul 23, 2026 · 15:08In transcript

…Abraham Accords with several countries in the region, between those countries and Israel. And the President obviously wants to expand on that historic accomplishment from…

The PressreporterPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Jul. 16, 2026 · Jul 16, 2026 · 13:33In transcript

…JD Vance, went on this podcast with Joe Rogan yesterday, talked about Israel, in which he said that there are some people within their system…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 6:52In transcript

…of course region -- countries don't give up the right of self-defense. Israel doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 37 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Apr 8, 2026IsraelKalshiYes3
Mar 31, 2026IsraelKalshiYes5
Mar 30, 2026IsraelKalshiYes2
Mar 10, 2026IsraelKalshiNo0
Mar 4, 2026IsraelKalshiYes3
Feb 10, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo–
Jan 7, 2026IsraelKalshiNo0
Dec 22, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Dec 11, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Dec 1, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Nov 20, 2025IsraelKalshiYes4
Nov 12, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Nov 4, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Oct 23, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Oct 6, 2025IsraelKalshiYes2
Aug 20, 2025IsraelKalshiYes1
Jul 23, 2025IsraelKalshiYes1
Jun 30, 2025IsraelKalshiYes7
Jun 27, 2025IsraelKalshiYes9
Jun 19, 2025IsraelKalshiYes5
Jun 6, 2025IsraelKalshiYes1
Jun 3, 2025IsraelKalshiYes1
May 29, 2025IsraelKalshiYes2
Apr 28, 2025IsraelKalshiNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Apr 22, 2025IsraelKalshiYes1
Apr 16, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Apr 10, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Apr 9, 2025IsraelKalshiYes3
Mar 17, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Mar 11, 2025IsraelKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Feb 25, 2025IsraelKalshiNo0
Feb 21, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Feb 19, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Feb 12, 2025IsraelPolymarketYes–
Feb 5, 2025IsraelPolymarketYes–
Jan 31, 2025IsraelPolymarketYes–
Jan 31, 2025IsraelKalshiYes1

Questions

How often is “Israel” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel” was said at the White House press briefing on 22 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 31, 2025 (61%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026.
What is the probability “Israel” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=36). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Israel’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/israel (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=israel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP