Will “Ceasefire” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said at the White House press briefing on 10 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 29% · n=23
- Settled
- 10/23 (43%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…their end of the deal. Now, as you guys know, sometimes these ceasefires are a little messy. The president of United States said this a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…first, is there a deal on the table for a 60 day ceasefire to continue that? And then second, how fast could inflation then recede…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 26 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ceasefire |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Ceasefire |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Ceasefire | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ceasefire | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 19, 2026 | Ceasefire | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Ceasefire | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 15 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Ceasefire | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Ceasefire | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 19, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Ceasefire” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said at the White House press briefing on 10 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 19, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ceasefire” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP