White House press briefing transcript, Jul 23, 2026
At the White House press briefing on Jul 23, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said 17 of the 54 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 50 of 54 settlements. Full transcript below (The White House on YouTube, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
54 words · 17 settled yes · our count agreed on 50 of 54- Kalshi: role: press secretary
Kalshi - Polymarket: role: press secretary
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President 50+ times | Yes | 51 | 65 | ✓ | 67%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| President 40+ times | Yes | 51 | 65 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 27%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal / Illegals | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Xi / Jinping | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 26%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Correspondents Dinner | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Truth Social | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CDC / WHO | No | 10 | 10 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Administration 10+ times | No | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Thing 10+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Go ahead 5+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kalshi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Houthi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Pool | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Strait | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Commander in Chief | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Madness | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=37 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
50 passagesSpeaker-labelled captions · The White House (YouTube), public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Prepared remarks
Good afternoon, everyone. Good to see you here today. Good morning, Gabe. We'll begin today with a few scheduling announcements. Later this afternoon, President Trump will welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers back to the White House to celebrate their second consecutive World Series Championship. Tomorrow night, the President will attend the Whitehouse Correspondents Association dinner round two, celebrating free speech in the First Amendment alongside all of you members of the media. The President looks forward to finishing what he started before a despicable assassination attempt derailed the original event back in April, as we all know. And I encourage everyone watching tomorrow night to tune in for what promises to be a very entertaining and memorable evening. Looking ahead to next week, on Monday, President Trump will travel to Michigan to deliver remarks on the economy.
On Tuesday afternoon, the President will deliver a tribute honoring the life and of his dear friend, Senator Lindsey Graham. At the National Cathedral, and next Friday, the President will host the 13th Cabinet meeting of this term at Camp David, which will be a lot of fun and something different for the Cabinet to experience together. Turning now to the economy. A little more than a year after President Trump signed the Working Families Tax Cuts into law, this historic legislation continues to deliver on its promise, unleashing a boom for American workers, families, and small businesses. The numbers speak for themselves. This was the biggest tax refund season in American history, with the average refund exceeding $3,400, an 11% increase over the last year.
American families and workers claimed $82 billion in direct tax relief, and 97% of filers received a tax cut. More than 29 million workers claim no tax on overtime. More than 35 million seniors claimed no tax on Social Security, and nearly 8 million workers claimed no-tax on tips. Thanks to the other pro-growth provisions in the working family's tax cuts, like making the 20 percent small business tax deduction permanent and delivering 100 percent expensing for new factories, equipment and research, the Trump administration is setting up American manufacturers and workers to thrive like never before. Just this week, the National Association of Manufacturers, which is the largest manufacturing association in the country, released a detailed report showing exactly how these tax cuts are driving investment, job creation, innovation and long-term growth in all 50 states.
In fact, I'd like to take a moment to highlight just a few of the real American businesses that this law is helping. Pivot Manufacturing in Arizona made the largest equipment purchase in company history after the Trump tax cuts gave them the long-term certainty to invest with confidence. Winton Machine Company in Georgia is on pace for the best year in its history. Ketchy Inc. in North Carolina was able to purchase new machinery and expand its workforce by 25 percent. And Juergens in Ohio expanded its brand-new facility to increase production, and they're also paying their workers even more thanks to the no tax on overtime provision. These are not just great statistics, these are American businesses with the confidence to grow, hire and invest right here at home, rather than offshoring their jobs.
In a business opening or expanding in this country means more opportunity and higher wages for American workers. It means a chance for the American dream for young families and it means restoring the belief that we can make and build things right here, at home. This is what President Trump promised, and it's exactly what he is delivering with the help of Republicans in Congress. Democrats throw around the word affordability a lot, but when they had the chance to vote for the largest middle-class tax cuts in history, they refused. If Democrats got their way, it would have meant the largest tax increase in history -- $4 trillion. Ninety percent of Americans would have seen their taxes go up, and it would've been a complete disaster for our economy.
That's the Democrat's solution to, quote, affordability. It is raising your taxes. So I hope the press will cover more of the massive success stories resulting from the working families' tax cuts and point out that every single Democrat on Capitol Hill voted against every single common-sense provision that put more money back into the pockets of the American people. Finally, on the energy front, after this briefing, President Trump will participate in a historic Ratepayer Protection Pledge event at the EPA headquarters down the street. The President will expand the Ratepayer protection pledge to governors, state legislatures, developers and power providers to ensure that everyone involved in building and powering data centers pays their own way, instead of passing those costs on to hardworking families.
The President is joined by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and several governors who have already signed on to this pledge. And it has already proven to be remarkably successful. Nearly 200 additional stakeholders have signed on since it was first announced, including utilities, data center developers, public power authorities, co-ops, and state governors. As a result, the pledge now covers 80 percent of all the power delivered to American homes and businesses. President Trump's bold leadership is turning data centers from a source of concern into engines of growth and opportunity for communities across this country. All while cementing America's dominance over China in the global AI race. The President is ensuring the American people are never left footing the bill so private companies can benefit.
Instead, President Trump is leveraging the data center boom to deliver real, tangible benefits for working families and small businesses. So we have a busy day here. Rest assured. I'll take some questions. And here in our new media seat, we have Cam from Town Hall. Cam, thank you for being here. Why don't you kick us off today?
Questions and answers
Thank you. Two quick questions. One on Congress. First off, Speaker Mike Johnson passed a continuing resolution earlier this week. John Thune has said he wants to have a work with Democrats to find a way to fund the government. What is the White House's stance on the best way to keep the government funded?
Well, the White House's stance is that the government needs to be funded. This president and Republicans on Capitol Hill from both chambers, as you just mentioned, the House and the Senate Republicans want to keep the government open. We want to work together to find ways to do that. And the White house will continue to have discussions with Senate leadership on the best path forward. I don't want to get ahead of those conversations, but uh... The most important thing for the American people to know is that this president in this white house wants the government to remain open unlike the democrats in this town who have been acting as obstructionists we've seen time and time again they have chosen to block this administration to block republicans in congress from keeping our government open which does not help anyone in it especially hurts the American people who depend on our government remaining open so they can access the critical services that our government provides to so many Americans across the country. So these conversations are continuing, but I think I just made the President's position quite clear.
Thank you. And then on the Saudi Arabia nuclear deal, what steps is the U.S. Taking to get Saudi Arabia to sign the Abraham Accords?
Sure. Well, the President himself has spoken on this many times. His true social post this morning, and I will read it for those at home who missed it. The civil nuclear deal, there will be no enrichment of material. An important point being made between the Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which pertains only to non-military use, will be approved but is totally subject to Saudi joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords. The United States is not opposed to civil nuclear facilities, as we all know. Look, this is a condition that the President has spoken about many times with our Gulf and Arab allies. He wants to see these countries sign the Abraham Accord. It was one of the most historic accomplishments of his first term, and it continues to be a long-term goal of his to expand those accords to ultimately come to a place where the Middle East can be a peaceful and stable region.
And yes, this deal. With Saudi Arabia, the energy deal is contingent on this condition as far as the President is concerned. So we'll continue to talk with our Saudi counterparts to get the deal finalized and hopefully see them joining the Abraham Accords very soon. Thank you. Thank you, Gabe.
With regards to the Saudi nuclear deal, why was that condition not mentioned yesterday when the energy secretary announced it?
Well, look, the President is always the final dealmaker, as you know, and this is something that he has mentioned on numerous occasions going back. I can provide you with those statements. And he has said if they don't join the Abraham Accords, the deal is off. So we'll continue to have those conversations with our Saudi counterparts moving forward.
So the deal is that if Saudi Arabia doesn't join and have you any indication that Saudi Arabia is even considering this?
Again, the President has spoken directly with the Saudis about this in numerous conversations in the past, and the administration will continue to engage in those conversations. Alexandra.
(inaudible) be exempt from international inspections as part of this deal if it moves forward?
I don't want to comment on the specifics of the deal, as we're still, again, as I just said, talking especially about this very important condition that the President raised this morning. Alexandra.
So, Treasury Secretary Bessent voiced concern this week on China potentially distilling or stealing AI technology from the United States, kind of manipulating it as their own anthropic, said that the largest distilling attack happened last month. Do you think this will come up when the President meets with President Xi in September?
Well, I have had the honor of being part of some of the meetings and discussions between President Trump and President Xi. And I can tell you, there is always a wide range of topics that come up. I would imagine this would be something that's of high importance to the President and of this administration to obviously ensure that America remains dominant in the AI race. And we're obviously tracking the particular situation that you mentioned.
I have one more if you don't mind. This week we've seen some major players in Democrat politics voicing or alerting really on how much influence socialism, communism has had now on kind of mainstream Democrat politics. Is there any chance that the President would be interested or is considering working with left of center Democrats to push back on this?
Well, unfortunately, we don't seem to have too many of those left in the Democrat Party. We have literal self-proclaimed communists who are winning elections and who are claiming to be the new leadership of the Democrat party. I think the vast majority of Americans understand the dangers of communism. Just look at countries all over this world. As an example, Cuba right now is a country that is about to be a failed state because of the communist policies of the past several decades. Communism should never be allowed to lead this country and the President obviously is is Strictly opposed to it and all the dangers that it that it reaps. We've seen it happen across the world. Meredith.
Just to continue on the Saudi nuclear deal Do the Saudis agree with this interpretation since it wasn't part of the initial agreement and has the President talked to NBS? Since this new
as you know the President just put out this statement a few hours ago I don't believe he's had a call with MBS in the hours since however this is something that he has raised in previous conversations and has also said many times in the past. John in the back go ahead
In regards to this deal, in the past the Saudi government has said they will not consider entering into the Abraham Accords unless and until there's a Palestinian state. What makes you think that they're going to change their minds on their position regarding that?
Again, I won't get ahead of the President's conversations, but this is something that he feels very strongly about and has spoken about it in the past and will continue to uphold.
Can I ask you one other question? Just playing devil's advocate, why does Saudi Arabia get a civilian nuclear deal but Iran doesn't get a civilian nuclear deal?
Well, again, this agreement is still being worked out. It will eventually, hopefully, be finalized with the condition that the President spoke about this morning. But this agreement in particular, as it's been discussed thus far, does give priority access for American companies in the Saudi nuclear energy program, which will ultimately benefit American industry workers and supply chains. So the deal that has been discussed thus far and will continue to be discussed absolutely puts America first, and that's obviously very important to this President. Ed.
Thanks, Karoline. So Friday, the Section 122, the 10 percent global tariff, goes away. Is the President going to ask Congress for an extension or what's next?
Well, I know the USTR, our great Jameson Greer, trade representative, will be having an announcement on that very soon, later today. I don't want to get ahead of him, so I would just tell you to stay tuned for more details.
The President is going to have some big utility companies at this event later on today. We're now a year and a half, so to speak, into his energy, pro-energy policies. Is he going to pressure those executives to lower energy prices, not just maintain in the prices.
Well, look, as I mentioned earlier, the rate payer protection pledge is a novel idea drawn up by this president, his team, to ensure that data centers and communities where those communities want data centers, that these big CEOs and energy companies are picking up the tab for the energy costs in these communities so the American taxpayer not being fronted with those bills. And the pledge today is being expanded to acknowledge all elements involved in building and operating data center. The governors who appoint the state regulators, who set the power prices, the utilities, and the co-ops that sell the power, and in addition to the tech companies that have already signed the pledge. So you'll continue to hear more about that from the President in a few hours at 2:30 when he goes over to the EPA.
Have you spoken to the President about what he wants to do about Chinese AI models if they are found to have stolen American IP? Does he want to sanction them? Or what actions can be taken without undermining broader U.S.-China trade talks or cutting top American startups that are increasingly reliant on them.
Well, I won't get ahead of the President on any potential actions, but obviously these conversations are taking place. And again, they're of the utmost importance, not just for our national security, but to ensure America remains dominant in this space. Stephen.
Thank you, Karoline. I have two questions. Has President Trump spoken with FIFA President Gianni Infantino about his interest in nominating him for UN Secretary General? Can you explain his interest there? And secondly, just a minor point of clarification on the Saudi nuclear deal. Did Prime Minister Netanyahu request this provision?
Not to my knowledge, no. Again, as I told you, this was an idea the President has long had. It was the President and his team in the first term that began and signed the Abraham Accords with several countries in the region, between those countries and Israel. And the President obviously wants to expand on that historic accomplishment from his first term. To your first question about Gianni Infantino, I don't know if he and the President have discussed that. I haven't been present for all their conversations. I know they speak quite frequently in the President. Has a lot of respect for Gianni and what he has done with FIFA. As we all just saw, the World's Cup was a tremendous success here at home.
It not only was hugely beneficial to our businesses and our local economies across the country, but I think it showed that America is the greatest country on Earth, and the President is grateful to Gianni for all of the efforts that he had to make that dream a reality here in the United States.
Thanks Karoline. Is President Trump or the administration, do they have any plans to intervene in the extradition process for the Tate brothers?
No, we've already answered that question. Elizabeth.
Thank you, Karoline. Secretary Mullen said that election officials that knowingly allowed non-citizens to vote could be prosecuted and fined. Is this option being considered in New Jersey after the governor revealed that thousands of non-citizens were registered to vote there?
Well, for any prosecutions, obviously, I would always defer you to the Department of Justice. But what I will say on New Jersey and this governor, the fact that she just all of a sudden decided to put out a press release saying President Trump and Republicans have been right about non-citizens on our voting rolls is not a coincidence. I think this governor is saying this because she realizes this administration is serious about getting to the bottom of illegal aliens voting and being on our voter rolls in our country. The Secretary of Homeland Security, as you know, sent a letter to several states, including New Jersey, requesting that noncitizens that are on their voter rolls need to be reported to DHS and need to removed from those voter rolls.
So that's why all of a sudden she is speaking truth about the fact that this does take place in states across the country. It is completely unacceptable to have noncitizen on American voter rolls voting in U.S. elections. And she says at 6,600, we suspect it's a heck of a lot more, not just in New Jersey, but in states across the country. The President is hell-bent on getting to the bottom of this, and it's also why we need to pass the Save America Act to ensure that only U.S. citizens are voting in U.S. elections. And I understand the House had a great accomplishment yesterday with passing the budget resolution, which has as much of the Save American Act as possible, and we Encourage the Senate of to move forward with passing that resolution into law so the President can sign it into law by the August recess. It's of the utmost importance to this president, but also to the American people who support this bill overwhelmingly. Mary, in the back.
Thank you, Karoline. Two questions. One on Sophia Cunningham and then on self-driving cars. Sophia Cuningham and the WNBA has been attacked as a MAGA Barbie for saying it's common sense for men to not be in women's sports and locker rooms. Is the President following this story and has he reached out to her?
I don't believe he has reached out to her. I know he is following the story. As you know, this is something the President feels strongly about as well, and the American people do, too, that men should not be playing in women's sports. It's completely ludicrous that anyone could support that. It's even more ludicrous that you do have Sophia Cunningham, a female athlete herself, very accomplished in her own right, coming forth and speaking that truth that men shouldn't play in women sports. We want to protect. Women and girls and the backlash she is receiving from Democrats and left-wing fingers across the country is astonishing. They are clearly very out of touch with the American public on this issue, which again is an 80-20 issue. It's common sense. It's rooted in basic biological fact that men should not be competing against women on playing fields across the county.
There's legislation right now to ban China's self-driving car technology from U.S. roads. Does the White House have a position on this and broadly, how does the President feel about self- driving cars himself?
Well, you know the President did have a red Tesla here at the White House for quite some time so he's a supporter of them. I know he's purchased some self-driving cars for his family members, his grandchildren, so I think he supports them and Americans who want to drive them. But with that said, I don't know about the specific legislation. I will check in with our legislative affairs office and we'll get you a statement on that.
One question for you on Thune and then one on Darlene Graham. The President seemed frustrated with Leader Thune when he was speaking in Georgia. Is his patience running out with Leader Thune? And then the President recently endorsed Darlane Graham right after her appointment to Senate. What caused him to endorse her so quickly?
The President met with Darlene and thought she will be a great representative for the great people of South Carolina and will carry on her brother's legacy of public service in that beautiful state. So the President is fully supportive of Darlène and her honorable decision to run and again to continue her brother legacy. With respect to your first question on, remind me. Yes, look the President spoke about this directly yesterday. His patience is running out. He wants to see as much of the Save America Act as possible by the August recess He knows that's what the American people want to see past. He was just traveling on the road yesterday spoke about this and there was a very loud applause from the people in the audience the everyday Americans because voter ID is common sense.
They want proof of citizenship in our elections and the President feels very strongly about that. And I would just add, you know, the American people elected overwhelmingly Republicans to lead not just this White House, but also the House and the Senate. The House did its job. The Senate needs to do its job, too. I know it's a brief briefing today, but you're going to hear from the President directly twice today at 2:30 and also at 4:30. And we will see you all tomorrow night at the Correspondence Center. Thanks, guys.
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