Will “National Guard” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “National Guard” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (10%), most recently on Oct 6, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
National Guard
- Probability
- 28% · n=10
- Settled
- 1/10 (10%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | National Guard |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | National Guard | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | National Guard |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | National Guard | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “National Guard” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “National Guard” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (10%), most recently on Oct 6, 2025.
- What is the probability “National Guard” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP