Will “Nuclear” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said at the White House press briefing on 11 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (79%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 41¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Nuclear
- Probability
- 57% · n=14
- Settled
- 11/14 (79%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 5 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…has to turn over their highly enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a nuclear weapon. And the Strait of Hormuz, back to your question on energy,…
…the -- the highly enriched uranium and that they can't have a nuclear program. And -- and to be clear here, that this administration --…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Nuclear |  Polymarket | No | – |
| May 28, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Nuclear |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 18 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Nuclear” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said at the White House press briefing on 11 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (79%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Nuclear” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP