Will “Stupid Question” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Stupid Question” was not said at the White House press briefing on any of the 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 6, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 16% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Stupid Question
- Probability
- 16% · n=24
- Settled
- 0/24 (0%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Every settled listing
newest first · 24 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Stupid Question |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Stupid Question” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Stupid Question” was not said at the White House press briefing on any of the 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 6, 2025.
- What is the probability “Stupid Question” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 16%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Stupid Question’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/stupid-question (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=stupid%20question · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP