Will “Iran” be said 5+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (22%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Iran 5+ times
- Probability
- 28% · n=9
- Settled
- 2/9 (22%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
13 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 13 in Q&A); 14 by speakers the rule does not count.
…never targets civilians or children, unlike the other side of this conflict, Iran, who is well-known for killing women and children and innocent people in…
…spoken with the President about this as recently as an hour ago. Iran very much continues to talk to the United States of America and…
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 11 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the cabinet meeting, that he -- he has several red lines. And Iran has to turn over their highly enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a…
…core belief, and he believes that the most important thing is for Iran never to have a nuclear weapon. So, I believe both things can…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 13 |
| May 28, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 2 |
| May 19, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Iran 5+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (22%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran 5+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Iran 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/iran-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=iran%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP