Will “ICE” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said at the White House press briefing on 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 18¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
ICE
- Probability
- 32% · n=15
- Settled
- 6/15 (40%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
3 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…convicted of the most heinous and violent crimes. This past weekend alone, ICE arrested a Mexican national and gang member convicted of second degree murder…
…on the same page that vehicle stops are a necessary tool that ICE agents need in order to continuing -- continue their deportation campaign of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | ICE |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | ICE |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | ICE | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | ICE | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | ICE | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “ICE” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said at the White House press briefing on 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jul 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “ICE” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘ICE’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP