White House press briefing, Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Markets
22 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: role: press secretary Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| President 50+ times | No | 71%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | No | 70%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal / Illegals | No | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| President 60+ times | No | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Administration 10+ times | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pink | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Xi / Jinping | No | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Go ahead 5+ times | No | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 43%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz / Strait | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| CDC / WHO | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pool | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Commander in Chief | No | 25%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | No | 23%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Madness | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-20260723175551503 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP