Will “ICE / National Guard” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said at the White House press briefing on 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (60%), most recently on Feb 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 44% · n=10
- Settled
- 6/10 (60%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…convicted of the most heinous and violent crimes. This past weekend alone, ICE arrested a Mexican national and gang member convicted of second degree murder…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 18 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 16 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “ICE / National Guard” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said at the White House press briefing on 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (60%), most recently on Feb 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “ICE / National Guard” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP