Will “Illegal Alien” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Illegal Alien” was said at the White House press briefing on 19 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 4, 2025 (66%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=29, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.

42%from settlement history only · n=29Next: Press briefing, Feb 1, 2027 · counts: role: press secretary
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
role: press secretary
Market
31¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Illegal Alien

Probability
42% · n=29
Settled
19/29 (66%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not said

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: role: press secretary

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Karoline Leavittspeakerqa · 16:38In transcript

…she realizes this administration is serious about getting to the bottom of illegal aliens voting and being on our voter rolls in our country. The…

What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: role: press secretary

4 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Karoline Leavittspeakerprepared · 4:25In transcript

…confirmed that, for the 14th straight month, this administration has released zero illegal aliens into the United States. Again, let me reiterate the 14th straight…

Karoline Leavittspeakerprepared · 5:06In transcript

The administration continues working to reverse the previous influx of millions of illegal aliens into our country by the Biden administration. And our law enforcement…

Every match in the transcript

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 30 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 13, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Sep 15, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Jul 23, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes1
Jul 17, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes4
Apr 27, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Apr 15, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Apr 8, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Mar 31, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes8
Mar 30, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes5
Mar 25, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketYes8
Mar 10, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes3
Mar 4, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Feb 26, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketNo–
Feb 18, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes9
Feb 10, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes5
Feb 5, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes24
Jan 26, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes17
Jan 20, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Jan 15, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes5
Jan 9, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes4
Jan 7, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Dec 11, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes3
Dec 1, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes4
Nov 20, 2025Illegal AlienPolymarketNo0
Nov 20, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiNo0
Nov 12, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes1
Nov 4, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes3
Oct 23, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes9
Oct 6, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes7
Oct 4, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes11

Questions

How often is “Illegal Alien” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Illegal Alien” was said at the White House press briefing on 19 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 4, 2025 (66%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026.
What is the probability “Illegal Alien” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
42%, from settlement history (n=29). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP