White House press briefing, Sep 15, 2026
Kalshi What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing?
Markets
30 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: role: press secretary Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save America Act | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 55%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 49%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Truth Social | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 37%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 27%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 21%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 21%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 19%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 16%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 16%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=38 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSECPRESSMENTION-26SEP15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP